{"id":3833,"date":"2018-10-29T13:58:46","date_gmt":"2018-10-29T13:58:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.caspaonline.co.uk\/?p=3833"},"modified":"2018-10-31T16:56:49","modified_gmt":"2018-10-31T16:56:49","slug":"predicting-your-schools-end-of-year-performance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.caspaonline.co.uk\/attainment-progress\/predicting-your-schools-end-of-year-performance\/","title":{"rendered":"Predicting your school&#8217;s end of year performance"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>If you are familiar with CASPA\u2019s Traffic Light Graph, you may have looked at the green, amber and red bands and wished you had known in advance how many pupils would appear in each band.<\/p>\n<p>Good news \u2013 you can predict this before it becomes a fact (if pupils achieve their targets, that is).<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>All you need to do is make sure you get your pupils&#8217; targets into CASPA, and use the Traffic Light Graph to look ahead to the end of the year.<\/p>\n<p>Go to the Traffic Light graph (<strong>Reports | Comparison of progress vs expectations<\/strong>), choose a subject and analyse progress from last summer term\u2019s result to the target for the end of this year (ie from Summer 2018 (result) to Summer 2019 (target) in CASPA 2019 as below). \u00a0Click the \u2018Plot by subject\u2019 button (top left of screen) to view all subjects at once.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-3834 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.caspaonline.co.uk\/downloads\/29-10-2018-12-44-24-660x473.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"660\" height=\"473\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.caspaonline.co.uk\/downloads\/29-10-2018-12-44-24-660x473.png 660w, https:\/\/www.caspaonline.co.uk\/downloads\/29-10-2018-12-44-24-300x215.png 300w, https:\/\/www.caspaonline.co.uk\/downloads\/29-10-2018-12-44-24-768x551.png 768w, https:\/\/www.caspaonline.co.uk\/downloads\/29-10-2018-12-44-24.png 890w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 660px) 100vw, 660px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>If this was your school\u2019s graph and your pupils all meet their targets, this is exactly how your Traffic Light graph will look at the end of the year when the summer term results are in.\u00a0 Are you happy that this is right?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>If you have pupils in the red band, you have targets\u00a0that are\u00a0below CASPA\u2019s expected progress<\/li>\n<li>If you have no pupils in the green band, you have no targets that will result in above expected progress<\/li>\n<li>If your targets reflect &#8216;expected progress&#8217; across the board, the graph will be fully amber &#8211; no pupils are targeted to exceed expected progress<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>If your targets are, in effect, your plan for pupils, you can reasonably expect that most or all will meet their targets exactly.\u00a0 This graph is therefore a good predictor of how their actual attainment will pan out by the end of the year.<\/p>\n<p>So&#8230; your mission is to decide whether you are happy with this.\u00a0 If around 15% of your pupils have targets that will exceed expected progress, you might use this as part of your answer to &#8216;How aspirational is your school?&#8217; and similar questions.\u00a0 If you are not happy that this will be the outcome at the end of the year, the autumn term is a great time to change it.\u00a0 You can focus in on the pupils in the amber band who, with either more support or maybe just a review of the targets, might be able to be nudged into the green band.\u00a0 Look for the pupils whose &#8216;percentile change&#8217;, or Pctl in the hover list and report, are at +4; a little additional progress will pop them into the green band.\u00a0 Ask us about this if you would like to know more.<\/p>\n<p>If you want to investigate any pupils, hover over the chart marks to identify them, and if you wish to find out more, double click on the chart mark and right click on a pupil to either drill down to their main data entry pages or for detail reporting options.\u00a0 Click on the \u2018Report\u2019 button to display the details on which the graph is based.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If you are familiar with CASPA\u2019s Traffic Light Graph, you may have looked at the green, amber and red bands [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,1],"tags":[],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.caspaonline.co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3833"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.caspaonline.co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.caspaonline.co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.caspaonline.co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.caspaonline.co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3833"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.caspaonline.co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3833\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.caspaonline.co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3833"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.caspaonline.co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3833"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.caspaonline.co.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3833"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}